The first weekend of December 2025 and the fire danger rating for Sydney is forecast as extreme. Why? Because rainfall in the last two months has only been 41% of the long-term average. Soil moisture levels are very low, shrubs are showing signs of stress, and fuel loads in many areas are high. When we get high temperatures and strong winds, we can expect severe bushfires. If you live on the leafy margins, you should now have your property prepared and your emergency plan in place.

Yes, we have seen this before and we will see it again, but conditions have been changing over recent decades in that bigger, hotter, fires are more frequent because climate change is affecting weather extremes. It works the other way too, the NSW fires of 2019/20 released the equivalent of 80% of Australia’s normal CO₂ output.

When fires occur on catastrophic days it doesn’t matter what technology we have they will be uncontrollable and losses are inevitable.

The bush will recover, our native plants have evolved with fire, but in this new fire regime the bush will not recover to being the same as it was in 1960, 1850, or even in 1787. 

Future notes will illustrate some of the survival mechanisms, but meanwhile check your own knowledge at BOM Resources